{"id":8164,"date":"2020-01-13T12:28:42","date_gmt":"2020-01-13T12:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/barq-rs.com\/?p=8164\/"},"modified":"2020-02-12T12:56:05","modified_gmt":"2020-02-12T12:56:05","slug":"the-conflict-on-gas-in-the-eastern-of-the-mediterranean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/barq-rs.com\/en\/the-conflict-on-gas-in-the-eastern-of-the-mediterranean\/","title":{"rendered":"The conflict on gas in the Eastern of The Mediterranean"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Introduction<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East Region ranked first in containing a huge gas\nbasins that the major countries are being conflicting on\nthem since signing the Agreement of Earth Summit for Sustainable Environmental\nDevelopment 1992. Recently, after more gas discoveries found in Mediterranean\nwaters, and the high-demand on such discoveries, the region has become an\nincreasingly important geopolitical site. Moreover, the region is a key transit\npoint for gas pipelines among the three main continents in the world, hence the\nEastern of The Mediterranean is currently in the spotlight of many countries\nthat seek through their companies to secure a foothold in the region for the\npurpose of obtaining gas concessions, and to acquire as much concessions as\npossible, which raised the intensity of competition among the countries\nthat embrace the gas basins in their regional waters (Syria – Lebanon –\nPalestine – Cyprus), and others that have taken the direction of forming a side\nalliances for commercial, economic and political considerations, with the\nexception of the main countries containing these natural wealth, especially\nTurkey and Syria that are considered as main transit countries in the region for\nthe southern of Europe. Before the breakdown of the Syrian crisis in 2011, there were a set of\nrequesting projects to transport gas from Syria via Qatari pipelines\nthrough Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey territories to Europe, and the\nsecond pipeline from Iran to Europe through Iraqi and Syrian territories and\nTurkey territories to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 These\ngas discoveries would constitute one of the most important reasons for making a\nradical changes in the balance of power at the international and regional\nlevels, the general directions of the international policies may change as a\nresult of the transformation that can be generated from the international economic\ninteractions in the Middle East and the Eastern of Mediterranean,\nsuch interactions aim at evading both of Syria and Turkey as a countries that\ncontrol the transportation and supply of gas to Europe. As the gas explorations\nactivities accelerated in the eastern Mediterranean, it is become apparent that\nmost of the prospectors companies are belonging to a countries from Europe,\nUnited States of America, and Israel, due to the increasing need of these\ncountries to diversify their economic sources, and their\nattempts to reduce their reliance on oil, besides their attempt also to\nincrease their reliance on gas. A considerations of the preservation of\nenvironmental security, reducing the economic costs and the increase of energy\nsources may fall within the priority of the important determinants in the\nforeign policies of these countries, especially some of them may succeed over\nthe time in converting from a gas consuming countries to an exporting\ncountries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the gas discoveries in the\nMediterranean basin can fuel a new conflicts in the region, due to the\nacceleration of growing mobilizations, which could leave the region in chaos\nfor a decades, Perhaps the indications of the conflict are evidenced by cases of\nhigh frequency of threats between Turkey, Greek Cyprus and the European Union\non the one hand, and Lebanon and Israel on the other hand. It should be noted\nthat, some countries are activating the steps of demarcation of their maritime\nboundaries rapidly, and determining their gas resources in their regional water\nregardless of resolving the core issues, as was the case in the\nCyprus crisis that is still stuck without radical solutions between Turkey and\nCyprus, as well as the Israeli-Lebanese negotiations on the maritime border\nissue that did not lead to a final solutions. Despite entering the United\nStates as a mediator since 2017. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apart from the ongoing issues, instead of calming the situations and\nending the problems among all sides of the region, and forming an economic\nco-operation in order to realize the collective partnership benefit among all producer\nand consumer countries of gas, some countries entered the competition and\nestablished, in cooperation with the Egyptian Republic, the “Eastern\nMediterranean Gas Forum” [1], which included (Israel – Italy – Jordan –\nPalestine – Egypt – Greece – Cyprus) which came as a reaction to Turkey’s\ninitiation of exploration on the natural resources in the western Cyprus in the\nwaters that it considers  fall within the\ncontinental shelf of the Turkish Cypriot sovereign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper deals with the importance of the discovered gas resources in\nthe Eastern Mediterranean Basin, and the international interactions in dealing\nwith this issue in the light of the intensity of the international competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The gas in the eastern of the Mediterranean (transformations and\ndiscoveries)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gas has a major importance in the world as it is one of the most important sources of light energy, since 2015 the reliance has increased on it and ranked second after oil with 21.6 percent, between 2006 and 2016 the production of gas has increased to reach 23.5 percent, due to high-demand of some European countries and China and Japan which has tended to reduce its reliance on power plants which have a large quantities of carbon dioxide emissions, and started to rely on the neutral gas. Figure No. 1 shows the list of countries with the most carbon dioxide emissions [2].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East region alone occupies 42.5 percent of the global\nreserves of natural gas, while (Qatar – Russia – Iran) possess 48.3% of the\nglobal reserves, the figure No (2) shows the volume of gas reserves confirmed\nto countries and the rate of reserves of the production of countries that\npossess the largest proportions of gas in the world [3].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n  <\/strong>\n  <\/strong>\n State<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n  <\/strong>\n Confirmed Reserve of gas\n in 2015<\/strong>\n (trillion cubic meters) <\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n  <\/strong>\n Confirmed Reserve of gas\n in 2014<\/strong>\n (trillion cubic meters)<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n  <\/strong>\n The\n percentage of overall world gas reserve <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n  <\/strong>\n The rate of Global gas\n reserve <\/strong>\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Iran <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 34.0\n <\/td>\n 34.0\n <\/td>\n 18.2\n <\/td>\n 176.8\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Russia <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 32.3\n <\/td>\n 32.4\n <\/td>\n 17.7\n <\/td>\n 56.3\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Qatar <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 24.5\n <\/td>\n 24.5\n <\/td>\n 13.1\n <\/td>\n 153.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Turkmenistan<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 17.5\n <\/td>\n 17.5\n <\/td>\n 9.4\n <\/td>\n 241.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n USA <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 10.4\n <\/td>\n 10.4\n <\/td>\n 5.6\n <\/td>\n 13.6\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Saudi Arabia <\/strong><\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 8.3\n <\/td>\n 8.3\n <\/td>\n 4.5\n <\/td>\n 78.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Emirates<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 6.1\n <\/td>\n 6.1\n <\/td>\n 3.3\n <\/td>\n 109.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Venezuela<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 5.6\n <\/td>\n 5.6\n <\/td>\n 3.0\n <\/td>\n 173.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Nigeria <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 5.1\n <\/td>\n 5.1\n <\/td>\n 2.7\n <\/td>\n 102.1\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n Algeria <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 4.5\n <\/td>\n 4.5\n <\/td>\n 2.4\n <\/td>\n 54.2\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n The world <\/strong>\n <\/td>\n 186.9\n <\/td>\n 187.8\n <\/td>\n 100\n <\/td>\n 52.8\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the last decade, the Middle East region has gained\ngeopolitical importance, following the huge discoveries in gas reserves. According\nto the estimates of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2010, there are about 340\nbillion cubic meters of natural gas sources in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin,\nshared by Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Cyprus, Palestine and Egypt. Although the\nfigures were approximate, the persistent discoveries of gas\nstarted to disclose\nsome correct numbers, especially with the discovery of the first oil reserves\noff the Israeli coast by the American company “Noble Energy”, where\nit revealed the “Tamar” field, which contains 283 billion cubic\nmeters of gas, which followed by the discovery of the Leviathan field in 2010\nat a rate of 623 billion cubic meters, such discoveries followed by the\ndiscovery of Aphrodite field off the southern coast of Cyprus by Noble Energy\ncompany and Delek Group. The gas reserves are estimated at 255 billion cubic\nmeters, hence the discoveries has increased up to 2015, wherein the Italian\ncompany Eni announced the discovery of the Egyptian Zohr field with a gas\nreserve rate of 850 billion cubic meters, in February 2018 the “Italian\nEni and the French Total” companies has announced the discovery of the\n“Calypso” field in the Cypriot waters to the east, it was estimated\nto contain 8 trillion Cubic meters, and recently in the first quarter of 2019,\nthe company “Axo Mobil” announced the discovery of the\n“Galvecos” field in southwestern Cyprus that was estimated to contain\n5 to 8 trillion cubic meters of natural gas [5].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LinkedIn<\/a>\u200fStumbleUpon<\/a>\u200fTumblr<\/a>Pinterest<\/a>\u200fReddit<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the figure (3) below you can see the order of discoveries in\nthe triangle of Mediterranean basin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n  \n Field\n <\/td>\n Estimated reserve of gas\n <\/td>\n  \n Date of discovery\n <\/td>\n  \n Investment company\n <\/td>\n  \n Site of exploration\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Tamar\n <\/td>\n 283\n Billion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2009\n  \n <\/td>\n  \n American company Noble energy\n <\/td>\n  \n Off Palestinian coast\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Leviathan\n <\/td>\n 623\n Billion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2010\n <\/td>\n American company Noble energy\n <\/td>\n  \n Off Palestinian coast\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Aphrodite\n <\/td>\n  \n 255\n Billion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2011\n <\/td>\n American company Noble energy\n And Israeli Delek group\n <\/td>\n  \n Off southern coast of Cyprus\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Zohr\n <\/td>\n  \n 850 billion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2015\n <\/td>\n  \n Italian company Eni\n <\/td>\n In the coasts located between Egypt and\n Cyprus\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Calypso\n <\/td>\n  \n 8 trillion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2018\n <\/td>\n Italian company Eni& French company Total\n <\/td>\n In the eastern coast of Cyprus\n <\/td><\/tr>
\n  \n Galvecos\n <\/td>\n  \n 8 trillion cubic meters\n <\/td>\n  \n 2019\n <\/td>\n  \n Axo Mobile\n <\/td>\n  \n In the west of the waters\n <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

All these discoveries prompted the countries of the Mediterranean basin to enter a race on exploration, because these resources represent a remarkable transformation in the regional landscape of energy. Perhaps the geopolitical added value of the Mediterranean basin after these discoveries, has become the first drive for the political moves of the countries to determine the exclusive economic regions. In addition to the ceiling of political and economic gains have increased for some countries in order to rise to the ranks of gas exporting countries, achieve sustainable economic development, and enter the global gas market. However, the geopolitical aspirations remain suspended with the entry of these countries into the melting pot of conflicts, such as Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and Turkey, as the exploitation of natural resources require from the Eastern Mediterranean countries to overcome the contentious issues quickly, and move forward establishing  complementary interconnection leads to promoting the capabilities necessary to benefit from the wealth collectively, as some countries such as Syria has become a failed country and economically collapsed, in addition to the economic costs of exploration operations need advanced technology and facilities to liquefy gas, such capabilities only available in the companies belong to the major countries and the Arab Republic of Egypt, as those countries through their companies rushed to conclude unilateral and bilateral deals, to start the exploration operations immediately . Accordingly several agreements have been made among Cyprus, Israel and Greece, between Israel and Egypt, and between Egypt and Greece, which lead to ignite the tension among the countries, whose contentious issues are still unresolved, such as the crisis between Turkey and Cyprus, and between Israel and Lebanon. Moreover, the recent emergence of conglomerates and anti-axes to get some countries, such as Turkey, out of the gas equation. Figure (4) symbolizes the most prominent gas fields discovered in Cyprus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The discovery of gas reserve in\nCyprus waters was not augurs well for both countries, due to the divergence of\npolitical views since the issue of the division of the Cypriot island in 1974, to a northern part under the administration of the Turkish Cypriot\ngovernment, and a southern part administered by the Greek Cypriots. Yet the\nnorthern part is not internationally\nrecognized, while the northern part is requesting the international recognition\nas a legitimate government, but Ankara rejects such move. The negotiations over\nthe issue of Cyprus continued over the past years with the aim of the unification\nof the island, the last negotiation round was held under United Nations\nauspices in 2017 and it failed [6]. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Cyprus announced the discovery of the “Calypso” field in 2018, the tension between both sides has increased, because the first one has signed an agreements to demarcate the maritime borders with Israel 2010 [7], and other agreement with Egypt in 2013 [8], which prompted Ankara to claim its share of discovered resources where it fall within the economic zone of Turkish Cypriots in square No 3 south of the island of Cyprus, it believe that northern part of square No 6 intersects with the continental shelf that Turkey believes that it belong to it, it also increased its claims to demand the implementation of the final division of the island, for the purpose of benefiting the Turkish Cypriots from the field of Aphrodite that it is interfering with the economic zone of Cyprus Greece. Turkey argue that the discovered resources on the island belong to everyone, and no one may unilaterally monopolize it, but Cyprus Greece, ignored all the Turkish warnings, and it conducted the demarcation of exclusive economic zone, which enable it to exploit the gas wealth in its territorial waters, which prompted Ankara to reciprocate, as it signed an agreement to demarcate the continental shelf with the northern part of the island in 2011 [9]. Accordingly, an overlap has been occurred between the economic regions of the two countries, and each side has claimed its right to the disputed areas, as in Figure No. 5 [10]\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The year of 2018 known as the year of tension\nand escalation between both sides, as Turkey intercepted the ship Sipem 12000\naffiliated to the Italian company Eni, while it was attempting to explore in\nthe Cypriot waters, despite Ankara’ rejection to any exploration operations off\nthe coast of Cyprus, it has provided a licenses to the \u201cTurkish Petroleum\u201d\n2009-2012 for gas exploration in the northern part that it controls from the\nisland of Cyprus. Turkey stresses that it has the legal right to explore, and\nthe exploration fall within its continental shelf, but such act is contradicts\nwith the Law of the Sea Convention on [11] 1982 which Turkey refrained from\nsigning it in 1982, on the pretext that this document grants remarkable rights\nto islands. Turkey rushed to prove its right in the exclusive economic zone,\nand it sent on the July 10, 2018 Al-Fateh [12] ship to explore for gas in\nCypriot waters, which then it sent the Yavuz ship on June 20, 2019. Through the\ntracking of the pathway of the two ships, they have reached the part that is\ninternationally recognized as a part of  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republic of Cyprus, in which the exploration share was obtained by the Italian company Eni, “Total France”, and the American “Exo Mobil”. See Figure No. (6) [13].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Turkish actions\nled to the development of counter-reactions from Greek Cyprus, which based its\nactions on the support of European Union countries, that in turn imposed a\nsanctions on Ankara, because of its embarking on the exploration off the coast\nof Cyprus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 The current disagreement between Turkey and\nCyprus, Greece, reflects the desire of each side to prove its vital presence by\nmaking gas an economic lever for it, and to take advantage of the geographical\nlocation, to play a future role in energy globally. Turkey maintains its\nlong-standing position that Cyprus is just an island, and it has no right to\npossess a a continental shelf with a depth of 200 miles, so it rejects all\ninvestment agreements that Cyprus and Greece have signed with international\ncompanies, Turkish ambition is not absent for the benefit of the discovered\nwealth for reach the list of exporting states in the region, due to its the\ngeographical location that allows it to do so as it locates nearby the north of\nAfrica, Asia and Europe. Furthermore, its intention to overcome it continued\nneed for a states such as Russia, Iran and Iraq to import natural gas to cover\nthe domestic internal deficit. However, these hopes remain suspended with\nCyprus’ return to the top of the geopolitical competition in the eastern of the\nMediterranean, based on the European support that may raise the cost of\nconfrontations with Turkey and place it in front of a multi-party\nconfrontation, that started its implications as Italy sent to the Cypriot\nregions to prevent the boats of the Turkish army from obstructing the gas\nexploration operations made by the Italian company “Eni” [14].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel, Lebanon,\nEgypt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

the disagreement between Israel and Lebanon centered on the issue of demarcating the maritime boundary, since the failure of extending the Blue Stream gas pipeline 2, in accordance with a previous agreement signed between Russia and Turkey in 1997, that concluded to transport Russian gas to Turkey via a pipeline that pass over the Black Sea, it was assumed that the flow of blue gas would branch in two directions, the first from Turkey to Europe via Bulgaria and Serbia, and the second from Turkey to Israel, but this pipeline has stopped due to the provision of other alternatives of gas pipelines. Accordingly, the maritime boundary between both sides have not been demarcated. Moreover, the fact that Israel is not a signatory to the Law of the Sea agreement, and considers it to be part of the exclusive economic zone defined by the Lebanese government, this disputed area amounts to 860 km2, and according to the division of squares the problem is raised on square No. 8-9 as in Figure No. (7) [15]\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to Lebanon, it rejected all Israeli\nallegations and considered them illegal, as it also rejected the Boundary\nDemarcation Agreement signed between Cyprus and Israel, and some sources\nindicated that Israel wishes to extract Lebanon’s share of the discovered\nwealth, but Lebanon has divided the exclusive economic zone into ten squares.\nHowever, such measures do not prevent Israel from extracting a water area\nin the disputed area in the two squares (8-9). In light of the escalating\ndispute, Cyprus and the United States intervened as a mediator to resolve the\ndispute, and made several proposals to distribute the shares between both sides\nof the dispute, but Lebanon has completely rejected such proposal, and it\nconsiders that the entire zone fall within the Lebanese territorial waters.\nAfter the failure of the negotiations, Lebanon conducted oil and gas\nexploration off its coasts, and on February 9, 2018, it signed an agreement\nwith a consortium of international companies, such as the French\n“Total”, the Italian “Eni” and the Russian\n“Novatek” to explore for oil and gas in square No. 4 and No. 9 in its\nterritorial waters. [16]. This angered Israel, it described the matter as a\n“provocative” step, and demanded the international companies not to\nengage in the exploration processes. In 2017, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Israel\nagreed to build a pipeline to transport the gas under the water from the\nproducing fields in the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe [17]. Lebanon’s share\nof natural gas containing in this part of the Mediterranean is estimated at\nabout 96 trillion cubic feet, it is undoubtedly a fortune could help Lebanon to\nreduce its public debt\nthat which according to the latest official statistic reached 85.25 billion\ndollars [18]. On February 16, 2018, the United States again mediated between\nLebanon and Israel in the dossiers of maritime and land borders through\n“David Satterfield,” the Assistant Secretary of State for Near\nEastern Affairs. Satterfield put forward proposals dating back to 2012 to draw\nthe maritime borders between the two parties, but Lebanon rejected the\nproposal, and insisted on rejecting the proposal and insisted on its position regarding\nthe demarcation of the maritime borders through the tripartite committee that\nresulted from the April 1996 understanding that includes Lebanon, Israel and\nthe United Nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to Israel, he\ndiscovery of gas is considered as a qualitative transformation for it, as it\nturned it from a geographically isolated and impoverished entity in energy\nsources, into an entity that might be a global key player in the future market\nof natural gas. Israel has always suffered from the energy poverty after the\nfailure of all its previous attempts to find oil in the lands it occupied,\nsince 1947,which made it the only country that imported all of its oil needs\nfrom the oil producing and exporting countries. In 2005, the transformation has\noccurred in the Israeli equation, with the start of importing Egyptian gas\nthrough the (Al-Areesh-Ashkelon) pipeline, which started then to pump in 2012.\nAlthough Israel justified its cooperation with Egypt, as a strategic commitment\nin the matter of the economy, but at the same time, such allegations do not\nexempt it of unilateralism equation, in the purpose of fulfill its ambitions to\nmove to the level of impact, not only politically but economically, and with\nthe discovery of “Noble Energy” for the fields of Tamar and Leviathan\n(2009-2010), the equation for Israel has actually changed to become within the\nlist of potential gas exporters in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 But Tel Aviv’s main problem has always been its\nlimited ability to take advantage of the huge gas reserves due to the following\nreasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n